Could the S really HTF?

This is a favorite topic among gunnies, "When the Fit hits the Shan, where will you be? (and will you bring your towel?)" It refers to a total break down of social order and civilization, wrought with lawlessness and desperation. This situation is sometimes referred to as the Zombocalypse (though there are some who feel that word refers exclusively to the attack of the undead hoards), or TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) which seems more final than a simple SHTF scenario. There aren't really clearly defined differences between these ideas, but that's not important.

Whenever a SHTF scenario or TEOTWAWKI warning is posted on a gunner board, I suspect a majority of people simply chuckle to themselves and roll their eyes. I think this is because they think poster is referring to an incredible, unrealistic, world changing event. This does not have to be the case.
Unlikely Examples:
Will the army of the undead rise from the Earth to feast of the flesh of the living?
Probably not.
Will a rival superpower rise, and incite WWIII, leaving America a ravaged post-apocalyptic warzone?
It's unlikely.
Will the Red Chinese overtake America with sheer numbers, and claim the land as its own, forcing gunnies to fight for their freedom from the commies?
All signs point to No. (Hmm, that's actually possible.)
Will you awake from a sushi-induced coma only to find the populace of the city you live in have been infected by a highly contagious diet cola, turning them into bloodthirsty animals and you; armed only with your boomstick, chainsaw hand, and spleen are the only thing standing between the fanatical hoard of Islamic terrorist jellyfish and the destruction of the world by giant invisible pirate ninjas??? Also, you have to fight Metal Gear.
Er- What?!

The fact of the matter is that there are far more plausible possibilities that would result in the S H'ing TF.
Likely Examples:
Will there be an earthquake/fire/flood which knocks out power for 3 weeks.
It's possible.
Will there be a attack/mistake which contaminates drinking water for a month?
Very possible.
Will a serious tax hike drive the American economy into a depression?
Likely.

It wouldn't take much to throw the citizenry into a panic. Loss of food, supplies, or water will breed desperation in honest people. Even a minor disaster will render the police useless, and allow rioting, looting and lawlessness. It's happened before, and it didn't start with a bad plot from a B movie.

Lets give it a shot, shall we?

Perhaps at the very moment you finish reading this post, an important water pipe juncture will burst and be closed off for repair. But once that juncture is closed off, other junctures, unsuited for the elevated pressure, will burst in a domino effect. Suddenly the county is without water for an undetermined period of time. The news reports start up and needlessly frighten people (because it's good ratings). Citizens will check their faucets; half will panic, half will relax and wait for salvation. The panicking populace will rush to the nearest store to begin hoarding water for their family. Shelves are emptied within 12 hours, at night, stores are broken into for their goods. Days later, the less than scrupulous of the populace realizes that the police are preoccupied, and begin robbing, raping, and attacking at will. The relaxed half of the populace who thought this would blow over quickly begin to become frightened after the end of first week sees reports of repair delays. Freeways out of the county are congested to closure and filled with abandoned vehicles. Local government will set up stations to dispense a far too little water to far too many people. Those who are denied government water will mob up on those who did get water, many people will be beaten, and little water will make to homes. A serial arsonist realizes he has the upper hand. The governor will declare a state of emergency, and send trucks of water, but the truck drivers will not deliver the water after being shot at by gangs. Friends, neighbors, and family turn on each other to take what they so desperately need to survive. The police force disintegrates as officers stay home in order to protect their families and find supplies. A week later, the governor will enforce the supply deliveries by calling on the national guard to defend the trucks. De facto martial law will be put into place. National Guard will hold off desperate citizens who mob the supply trucks to maintain order; a shot will be fired, then many. Supply truck massacres will cause a media feeding frenzy, and lead to retaliation against the National Guardsmen. Lawlessness will become so bad that repairs on the water pipes will be postponed indefinitely. Then things start to get bad...

(Whoops, you just finished reading this post! Care to check the news?)