Wednesday, July 09, 2008

An unsettling future

DI has a post up, wherein he relates his personal difficulties with the high cost of oil, and covers what events could lead to fuel costs doubling.

John Bolton has recently stated that Israel "will have to" attack Iran due to estimates of it completing and possessing nukes sometime in 2009. Iran has recently taken delivery of Russian TOR-MI missiles. None of these concerns are fresh or new, but they have come to startling maturity. Iran has also made statements that if Israel hits them, they will "close" the Strait of Hormuz, only 21 miles wide at its' narrowest point, and strangle the route exiting the Persian Gulf for an estimated 27% of the world's oil exportation.

I believe the repercussions of an attack on Iran could double the price of gasoline at the pump in a matter of days, not weeks. That would paralyze society, especially if it occurs during the winter. It would virtually stop delivery of food to grocery shelves. What small town, with a budget that is already commonly in the red, plows its' highways after a big snowstorm with gasoline and diesel expenses of that magnitude? How does business function and continue? What happens to communications, electrical grids, police and fire resources? How long might it go on without relief? How desperate do cold, hungry people quickly become? Where do they go? What happens if banks close and people have no access to their moneys? No cell phone service or ATM's?

He goes on to ask his readers to prepare for the coming difficulties. Before you dismiss him as a "survivalist," ignore, for a moment, the first part of his post, and treat his recommendations as simple preparedness for unforeseen circumstances. All people should be somewhat prepared for disasters (natural or man made), and his simple requests will cost you very little time and money, and provide peace of mind.

The reason most people fail to prepare is not because they think a natural disaster could never happen. Most people don't prepare because they are afraid to think about what would happen if they were unprepared for a disaster. This seems a little backwards.

You don't need two year's worth of food, and a hand-pump well in your backyard. A few hundred dollars worth of preparation will put you head and shoulders above 95% of the population.

It's not fun to think about breakdowns such as these, but if you are a provider, you must.

As an aside, in the comments G-Man notes;
I've always thought it was quite odd that the liberals are always shrieking about a climate change catastrophe on one hand and then belittling the survivalists on the other... "The world's going to end but boy are you wierd for stockpiling and arming yourself to the teeth"... Oh well I've given up on hoping liberals would ever make sense...

May we all look back on these troubling times, and laugh at our worry.


Anonymous said...

Thanks a ton for the link, this is some really heavy shit that I'll have to start thinking about.

defiant_infidel said...

Thanks, ET... very good of you to call attention to my post and add your wisdoms. I also very much appreciated your comment. I have been remiss in answering the comments on my posts lately, focusing more on being a bit more regular with writing posts. I'm forever deficient somewhere!

Hope things are well in your corner (accepting that the subject we both posted on now suggests maybe otherwise!).

Take care, my friend.